Michael Scott: Indy Analysis

We live in legendary times. Actually, that’s almost always true. There’s generally some sort of a legend going on somewhere, but believing we are part of it contributes comfortingly to our own self-importance, so I repeat, in solemn tones: We live in legendary times.

The difficulty right now is in deciding which of the three riders on the podium at the Indianapolis GP is the most legendary. Okay, which two of the three riders, because marvellous though he may be at the controls, Jorge Lorenzo (perhaps wilfully) lacks the charm and charisma of team-mate Valentino Rossi, and lacks the thrill factor of Marc Marquez, who is after all still a stripling, with plenty of time to let his so far merely likeable persona to develop. So it’s between the two of them, and although Lorenzo is certainly in a position to beat them both, in legendary terms that would be something of a disappointment.

This is how it has gone so far: Rossi had polished up his ever-green credentials with a tally of three wins, including the one at Assen, where his creativity and opportunism made mincemeat of Marquez’s most devastatingly successful tactic – the last-corner T-bone attack. The youngster, fresh off two years of remarkable domination, has gone the other way. His original 2015 RC213V was a precision instrument, and it didn’t suit his loose and wayward riding style. His particular gift (reminiscent, by the way, of the previous “youngest-ever” superstar Freddie Spencer) is to push the bike until it has started to crash, and then to recover it. The new bike didn’t allow him to do that, so he crashed instead.

Shortly before the midway point, an epiphany. He switched to last year’s chassis with this year’s suspension, and at once he was back where he belonged – riding on the ragged edge, nice and loose, and getting away with it. Almost won at Assen, won from pole in Germany and now at Indy.

With eight races left, he now hangs 56 points adrift of Rossi. This means he needs to take back seven points per race to equal his score. Since this implies a number of race wins and he is already equal on three, equal points would be good enough for a third successive crown. At each of the last two races, he has recovered nine points. Better than bang on target. (By the way, the same figures versus Lorenzo require an average points recover of just under 5.9. His average gain over the last two races has been 8.5.)

Personally, I think he could do it, and it would be genuinely legendary if he did. A friend poo-pooed the notion. Nobody in history, he said, has made up such a gap. This is not strictly true. As an old-timer, I recall as if yesterday the 1992 season. With six (of 13) races left, Mick Doohan led Wayne Rainey by 65 points, requiring an average of more than ten points a race. Back then, points were fewer and awarded only to the top ten. Apply today’s system, and the gap becomes a yawning 80 points.

As we know, Rainey did come through to win his third and final title. It wasn’t decided on the track, however, but in hospital. Doohan broke his leg and suffered shockingly bad medical treatment that meant he missed four of those six races, and came back as a limping ghost, unable to save his dwindling advantage. For this epic season, this is also possible, but a bad crash for any of the three potential winners would of course be the worst way of reaching a final result. Here’s hoping it will go to the wire without interruption. Whichever way it goes, it will surely be legendary.