BBC labels biking more dangerous than hang-gliding

A quiz on the BBC’s website appears to suggest motorcycling is twice as dangerous as hang-gliding and more than three times as risky as scuba diving.

But the figures have been arrived at by comparing a single occasion of those activities to the equivalent of eight motorcycle journeys.

The risk of motorcycling has also been exaggerated by using old accident data.
The Big Risk Test asks people to rate activities for risk from zero to 20 and then tells them the right answers are 16 for motorcycling, eight for hang-gliding, six for rock climbing and five for scuba diving.

For rock climbing, scuba diving and hang-gliding, the quiz asks how many would die if a million people did it once. Participants then give their answer as the rating.
But for motorcycling, participants are asked how many would die if a million people rode 100 miles – eight times the average motorcycle journey of 12.4 miles.

Even within question’s parameters, the ‘correct’ answer of 16 is at odds with latest government figures, which suggest the answer should be 14. 

Cambridge University’s Professor David Spiegelhalter, who designed the test, said: “The ’16’ is 2006 data. It should really be 14.”

If the quiz had used a single trip by bike as its comparison, the risk rating would have been two, making motorcycling four times safer than hang-gliding, three times safer than rock climbing and more than twice as safe as scuba diving.

Professor David Spiegelhalter said: “The numbers that come out at the end are not a ranking of what’s more dangerous. That wasn’t the idea.”

Find the quiz here: www.bbc.co.uk/labuk/experiments/risk/

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